"None of the big tech companies know what their services are actually worth to their users".
The users are the product. They sell their attention to the advertisers. And they know exactly how much that attention is worth, because they use auctions to set the price.
In other words, you agree with me that the tech companies don't know what their services are worth to users. They know what their ads are worth to advertisers, which is not the same thing.
They also basically don't care what their services are worth to users, except in the very weak sense that the services have to be sufficient to get users to use them. But that's an extremely low bar.
No. It's not really a predator-prey relationship, because the predators aren't consuming the prey for sustenance. They are killing out of self-defence only.
Oh yeah, just top up the compost every year. Where are you getting that compost from? Wood chips you say? You'd have to denude ten acres of forest to make enough compost to Dowding one acre of field.
He's a soil vampire, sucking in fertility from somewhere else to feed his own garden.
In my parents' farm the compost comes from cleaning up the forest around it (trim branches, vegetation, dying trees, etc) mixed with the chicken and goat manure plus whatever else gets mixed in there (food leftovers, ashes, coffee grounds, etc). Of course it's at a small-ish scale (less than 1 hectare) but my parents definitely don't denude 4 hectares to do so.
Tree surgeons/arborists are always trying to get rid of chips
An acre? Charles Dowding is a market Gardner, not a farmer, but he has done it on a scale of a few acres.
His compost is a mixture of
1) homemade. When you are trying to expand a plot growing stuff to compost can help. Grass clippings, waste from the garden etc. This is a minor source of very good compost.
2) woodchip, see above
3) green waste. This is other people's garden waste, normally composted poorly by a local authority. You want it some time before you use it so it can compost more fully
4) farmyard/ horse manure
5) spent mushroom compost. Actually I never saw him use this, but it is very common.
One farmer I saw said the secret of no till is 'other peoples carbon', you are correct. But some people have carbon to get rid of.
Hmmm, good question. I think one interesting incident for us was when we saw scenario probabilities being updated near last Friday EOD for the US-Iran conflict, biased towards further kinetic action by the US around Kharg island (?). This was basically captured from changes in odds for Polymarket events that the system was tracking.
The news came in a few minutes later, post equity market closing.
> So someone monitoring Polymarket could have reached the same conclusion?
Maybe? If they are professionally trading prediction markets, I'm pretty sure that would be the case. Polymarket especially is a great source of insider traded information, as you pointed out.
We do near realtime tracking of most major markets, plus X accounts that Soros identifies as being important. The system also composes search queries per analysis, along with frequency of scanning, and that's run as requested. (We use a mix of Perplexity and other smaller search providers, along with Exa via OpenRouter's integration.)
Other inputs might be direct statements from leaders involved in the conflict, especially Trump. Also maybe bond market and oil market price movements?
Then you would want to generate an alert when you an actionable prediction. You don't want the user to have to prompt the AI. It needs to be running in the background, having been prompted on the scenarios to monitor?
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