> Yeah, it is over for several roles, especially frontend web development
Only if the front end was super simple in the first place, IMO. And also only for the v1, which is still useful, whereas for ongoing development I think AI leads people down a path of tools that cost more to maintain and build on.
It may be that AI leads to framework and architecture choices best suited to AI, with great results up front, and then all the same challenges and costs of quick and dirty development by a human. Except 10x faster so, by the time anyone in management realizes the mess they’re in, and the cost/benefit ratio tilts negative even in the short run as opposed to the obvious to engineers long term, there’s going to be so much more code in that bad style that it’s 10x more expensive for expert humans to fix it.
This is correct. AI is a huge boon for open source, bespoke code, and end-user programming. It's death for business models that depend on proprietary code and products bloated with features only 5% of users use.
> Could this lead to more software products, more competition, and more software engineers employed at more companies?
No, it will just lead to the end of the Basic CRUD+forms software engineer, as nobody will pay anyone just for doing that.
The world is relatively satisfied with "software products". Software - mostly LLM authored - will be just an enabler for other solutions in the real world.
There are no pure CRUD engineers unless you are looking at freelance websites or fiver. Every tiny project becomes a behemoth of spaghetti code in the real world due to changing requirements.
> The world is relatively satisfied with "software products".
you can delete all websites except Tiktok, Youtube and PH, and 90% of the internet users wouldnt even notice something is wrong on the internet. We dont even need LLMs, if we can learn to live without terrible products.
I think so too. But because of code quality issues and LLMs not handling the hard edge cases my guess is most of those startups will be unable to scale in any way. Will be interesting to watch.
Not if they don't have access to capital. Lacking that, they won't be building much of anything. And if there a lot of people seeking capital, it gets much harder to secure.
Capital also won't be rewarded to people who don't have privileged/proprietary access to a market or non-public data or methods. Just being a good engineer with Claude Code isn't enough.
I think companies will need to step up their game and build more competitive products with more features, less buggy and faster than what people can build
And if needed, to actually swap defective landing gear parts to whatever extent possible. Maybe difficult or impossible with current aircraft designs, but maybe future ones could be designed with this backup option. Maybe a secondary landing gear insertion point or something.
This has been my experience as well. So far, whenever I’ve been initially satisfied with the one shotted tests, when I had to go back to them I realized they needed to be reworked.
> Baumol effects might have raised wages a bit, sure. How could the relative positions of these workers not fall as all these tech-enabled and scale-enabled neighbors come on to the scene?
Supply and demand? If the population of hairdressers was small, so they could charge more and more, then their wages could keep up as a percentage. And that would be possible if for example so many people moved into high productivity work that only a small percentage remained in low automation work. But if you have a constant influx of new hairdressers or a constant influx of people willing to do low automation work, that doesn’t happen.
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