Right now these models are basically good for automation, not innovation. Things like Karpathy's "auto research" where you use the model to automate your hyperparamter sweeps etc. The researcher/engineer decides what experiments they want to run, and builds an LLM harness to automate it, and the bottleneck remains the compute to run these experiments at scale.
Moving beyond LLMs to AGI, not just better LLMs, is going to require architectural and algorithic changes. Maybe an LLM can help suggest directions, but even then it's up to a researcher to take those on board and design and automate experiments to see if any of the ideas pan out.
Companies are already doing this, but they are never going to stop releasing/selling models since that is the product, and the revenue from each generation of model is what helps keep the ship afloat and pay for salaries and compute to develop the next generation.
The endgame isn't "AGI, then world domination" - it's just trying to build a business around selling ever-better models, and praying that the revenue each generation of model generates can keep up with the cost to build it.
Isn't the U.S. government at least completely asleep at the wheel or captured by the very same "random" companies? I realize the administration got all pissy with Anthropic but it sounds like the gov and gov contractors are still using their models.
Yeah but they still (at least to public knowledge) do not posses anything that could be called AGI. But as these capabilities increase they'll probably get an offer they can't refuse sooner or later.
What can a SOTA LLM not answer that the average person can? It's already more intelligent than any polymath that ever existed, it just lacks motivation and agency.
I see this statement all the time and it's just strange to me. Yes, the LLMs struggle to form unique ideas - but so do we. Most advancements in human history are incremental. Built on the shoulders of millions of other incremental advancements.
What i don't understand is how we quantify our ability to actually create something novel, truly and uniquely novel. We're discussing the LLMs inability to do that, yet i don't feel i have a firm grasp on what we even possess there.
When pressed i imagine many folks would immediately jest that they can create something never done before, some weird random behavior or noise or drawing or whatever. However many times it's just adjacent to existing norms, or constrained by the inversion of not matching existing norms.
In a lot of cases our incremental novelties feel, to some degree, inevitable. As the foundations of advancement get closer to the new thing being developed it becomes obvious at times. I suspect this form of novelty is a thing LLMs are capable of.
So for me the real question is at what point is innovation so far ahead that it doesn't feel like it was the natural next step. And of course, are LLMs capable of doing this?
I suspect for humans this level of true innovation is effectively random. A genius being more likely to make these "random" connections because they have more data to connect with. But nonetheless random, as ideas of this nature often come without explanation if not built on the backs of prior art.
To be clear i agree with you, my question is more pointed at us - i'm not sure we have a good understanding of conciousness, nor that we are as we seem. Given how prone to hallucinations we are, how our subtle hormones can drastically alter what we perceive as our intelligence, self identity, etc.
I'm not convinced LLMs are anything amazing in their current form, but i suspect they'll push a self reflection on us.
But clearly i think humans are far more Input-Output than the average person. I'm also not educated on the subject, so what do i know hah.
No I think that’s accurate. They seem more like an oracle to me. Or as someone put it here, it’s a vectorization of (most/all?) human knowledge, which we can replay back in various permutations.
LLMs and human intelligence overlap, but they are not the same. What LLMs show is that we don't need AGI to be impressed. For example, LLMs are not good playing games such as Go [1].
I don't see why not, especially with computer use and vision capabilities. Are you talking about their lack of physical embodiment? AGI is about cognitive ability, not physical. Think of someone like Stephen Hawking, an example of having extraordinary general intelligence despite severe physical limitations.
It isnt that weird. Just look at the gemini-cli repo. Its a gong show. The issue is that LLMs can be wrong sometimes sure but more that all the existing SDL were never meant to iterate this quickly.
If the system (code base in this case) is changing rapidly it increases the probability that any given change will interact poorly with any other given change. No single person in those code bases can have a working understanding of them because they change so quickly. Thus when someone LGTM the PR was the LLM generated they likely do not have a great understanding of the impact it is going to have.
Most people who ran AdSense were extremely careful not to look at the ads on their own site, because Google might flag them for intentionally inflating clicks or views.
If I understand GDPR and “the Right to be forgotten” properly, then yes - they would have to actually delete the information.
Edit: at least when it comes to PII, which I presume should include photos of you, or any personal detail of you. The content you may have posted there up until then - that might be a different story
Imagine the outrage here, when a company credit card expires and the cloud provider terminates all their instances, deletes all your storage and blob backups?
reply