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I'm bad at math, anyone know what's 6% of $11.5 billion?

In all seriousness, congratulations pg. You've played your cards very well the past 10 years.


After dilution it will be more like 3%.


So arguably at least one of {pg, pb, etc.} could have made just as much value over the past ~10 years by starting another startup, instead of an YC, if that were the goal. 10 years is probably enough time to try/fail-fast at least 2 and maybe 4 times, each.


Probably, but you're only counting the tangible value. In my mind what they've done is far greater in intangible value. What about HN and the community it has nurtured? And let's not forget being a sort of pointer to true north to most of the people thinking of creating something out of nothing. Sure, money is easy to count and imagine, but there's plenty of people that make that, how many PG's appear every 10 years? To paraphrase Michael Scott - you think PG's grow on trees; well they don't; there is no PG tree.


Absolutely - I think YC's overall "consumer surplus" is over $10b, since it somewhat changed the game for early stage startups in general, not just startups in YC.


On money yes, but the overall impact is much bigger this way. And the experience is in a certain way more like founding 300 startups not only 2 or 3.


Google says:

3% of (US$ 11.5 billion) = 345 million U.S. dollars

and

6% of (US$ 11.5 billion) = 690 million U.S. dollars


My biggest question is with the -$95 a month they attribute to the guaranteed resale value. I can't immediately tell how they came up with that.


This is a plan to effectively lease the car for 3 years (with the tax credit benefits of buying). At the end of 3 years, you will get back the $95/month, when you trade it in. (so it's the resale value minus what you still owe on the car)


That doesn't make sense. Other cars have resale value too, so how is this a comparative advantage? Why are they subtracting this off?

Google suggests the "average" car actually has higher resale value, at the same age/mileage, than what Tesla is guaranteeing: (I guess they're comparing to a subclass of luxury car which depreciates faster)

http://www.edmunds.com/car-buying/how-fast-does-my-new-car-l...


The power law part is why the contribution of the other 99 percent of outcomes to the expected value is close to 0.

If, for example, the distribution of outcomes was uniform between 0 and 100 billion, the startup would be worth 50 billion. Because the distribution roughly follows a power law, 1 billion is a better estimate.


If the Chinese do human rights violations...

I'm not even sure how to respond to that.


Chinese are one of the worst. But does US even wishes to get into that category. Ranking doesn't matter here, but belonging to that category is.


The salaries he listed were for executives, not coders.

If you pay your CEO too much more than $260k, there might be a risk that he/she start worrying about keeping the job (and the high salary) more than growing the company.


There is no really sense in your second sentence. The only way for a CEO to keep his job with VC partners, is to increase the income of his partners so he must increase the revenue of the company. It is the first goal of any CEO (even for non-profit company). If he don't, partners will kick him of his seat to put someone who cares about their investment and do his job.


Makes problems like my code not compiling seem rather small.


This is not a pro Zynga blog post.

The main point of the story that the OP was highly valued by Zynga, but he left anyway. It details his rapid access to key people and that his old boss begged him to stay (multiple hour convo at boss' house).

It's sort of like saying your old girlfriend was super into you, and begged you to stay with her, but you left her anyway. Most people might agree that making a public declaration of this would not be doing her any favors.

A reasonable person could consider this post unprofessional. Zygna (whatever your personal opinion of the company) was singing his paychecks and could be considered to deserve the sort of respect many people give former employers in public.


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