They're not going to have a normal country. The United States under Trump isn't interested in a democratic Iran. They want a dictator they can control.
I think you’re right that it would be a puppet state under trump. But in three years it will be a puppet state under somebody else! And maybe that somebody would relinquish the strings.
Not disagreeing with you, but US-controlled dictators have better track record of not killing thousands of protesters or just random people in own populations.
Not perfect option, but still is an improvement even from your positiom.
At some point you have to decide: if my country is held back by a brutal dictatorial regime where civilians can't hope to topple it, is there anything else to do other than get external help?
Libya is not a real country in a historical sense. It’s a bunch of tribes, Kadaffi was from one of the tribes that subjugated others. In Iraq it was a Sunni minority that rules over Shiite majority, and other minorities like the Kurds. In Syria one minority (alawiites) rules over others by force.
Also, these countries were not formed by themselves, but rather through deals with France and/or Britain.
Iran, while also diverse, has a thousands of years long history. Persians still see themselves as continuation of Persian peoples from the empire times, etc.
So, it is not very correct to compare it one to one.
Iraqis also see themselves as a continuation of Mesopotamian people, that was quite literally what Iraqi Baathist thought was centered around and used as the successful unification strategy. That's quite literally the justification the Baathists used to try 'reclaim' both Khuzestan and Kuwait. You quite literally couldn't be more wrong in how you categorize Baathist Iraq.
Iran has a much worse relationship with its minorities, where if you are of the wrong faith then you literally face state-sanctioned laws preventing you studying or working. In fact, things in Iraq became much worse for minorities after the overthrowal due to the adoption of Iranian cultural practices like Abrahamic elitism.
The cherry on top of all of this is that you probably don't realize that Persians in Iran only make up 60% of the country. You have Iranians who wholly reject Persian ancestry (Azeris, Armenians, Assyrians, Kurds...) but you don't even account for them, despite Iran having, what, three? entirely separate ethnic-based separatist insurgencies active across the country LOL
> That's quite literally the justification the Baathists used to try 'reclaim' both Khuzestan and Kuwait. You quite literally couldn't be more wrong in how you categorize Baathist Iraq.
Baathism is literally pan-arabism! Arabism as in Arab. Do you really think that making pan-arabism movement under the sauce of Babylonian legacy is going to work on Kurds and others? Of course not. Same applies to Syria that had their own flavor of pan-arabist party that kept Asad in power. Only recently, after the summer 2025 war with Israel Islamic Republic tried to connect itself to its Persian past, but of course it is too late for that.
> Iran has a much worse relationship with its minorities, where if you are of the wrong faith then you literally face state-sanctioned laws preventing you studying or working.
I am not sure how the practices of the Islamic Republic related to the current mood of the Iranians that oppose it.
> In fact, things in Iraq became much worse for minorities after the overthrowal due to the adoption of Iranian cultural practices like Abrahamic elitism.
You mean that Islamic Republic exported its own flawed ideology on the neighboring states through funding of various non-state actors? Wow.
> The cherry on top of all of this is that you probably don't realize that Persians in Iran only make up 60% of the country. You have Iranians who wholly reject Persian ancestry (Azeris, Armenians, Assyrians, Kurds...) but you don't even account for them, despite Iran having, what, three? entirely separate ethnic-based separatist insurgencies active across the country LOL
I think you conflate anti-regime insurgency vs. anti-persian one.
At no point in life I would wish for my fellow citizens to get killed by a foreign power. I’m already in my mid-40s, I’ve spent a day or two out in the streets, protesting (granted, not against governments that the West labels as dictatorial), but at no point has that option crossed my mind. More on point, I would regard the people thinking like that as traitors, because that’s what they are by definition, wishing for your fellow citizens to get killed by a foreign Power so that your political views can prevail is the very definition of treason to one’s people and nation.
Oh, please. If you think the majority of all Iranians are in favor of US-Israeli bombings of their home country, you're seriously smoking some potent propaganda.
Most Iranians outside Iran fled from the current regimes terror, they are happy with this. My country took in a lot of Iranians when the current regime took over in the 70s and those are very happy about this. They are out on the street celebrating the attacks on Iranian leaders, not protesting against them.
That's the implication of "At some point you have to decide: if my country ..." since "you" can't refer to anyone other than the Iranians. They have not "decided" to get bombed by Zionists.
Iran is not an Arab country? Answering a more general question - all countries of former Yugoslavia are better after US intervention. Some Serbs would not agree, but it's on them
It's not a deflection, it's an example of an intervention having a positive effect. I see no reason for Iran following Arabic rather than Balkan scenario - it's a totally different culture - much more modernised and much more secular
What story? Iraq is ruled by ISIS and Syria is ruled by a dude who's goal was to institute Sharia or ISIS v2. Those were both countries in the region where US intervention toppled a dictator and now is how it is.
Any country can be compared to any country and Arab countries are the geographically nearest ones to compare. It's miles more strange to compare it to the Balkans.
Funny how the Americans/Israelis are still so enamoured with the Big-Bad-Boss military view of the world, they've killed so many Taliban leaders in the past that they (the Americans) ended up giving control of Afghanistan to the same Taliban.
The same goes for their (both the Americans' and the Israelis') obsession about Douhet and his Air Power thing, a long-running mistake on Americans' part. So much so that their (the Americans') bases in places like Manama (Bahrain) are now getting pounded by lousy Shaheed drones, with no AD to speak of, none at all. This is a huge fuck-up for the Americans/Israelis, I wonder when will their MSM start to write that reality down.
> Trump’s son in law (Kushner) has most of his net worth wrapped up in OpenAI.
If true (too lazy to check but I honestly take your word for it), this should probably be bigger news. Not that the outright corruption when it comes to the highest position in the US Government constitutes news anymore, but because it puts the Government’s fight against Anthropic (and supposedly other potential OpenAI competitors) in a new light.
That’a the thing, at the end of it all power consumption will matter more for the end-user who doesn’t have money to burn away, because I suspect that power-consumption will, in the majority of cases, exceed the price of the HW itself in a matter of just a few months of intense use, let’s say a year.
Assuming models of a fixed size continue to improve in capability, continued advancement in semiconductors and optimization will reduce power consumption and/or improve performance over time. And used equipment will always approach the scrap price eventually. For me today, on scrap equipment, I get about 4 tokens / watt-hour, which is nominally ~$0.17 US but could run $0.40 after all the taxes and fees and surcharges. $0.10 / token. Ouch.
If I were to try to purpose build a rig for it, I would get an engineering sample Epyc/motherboard/ram combo from Aliexpress with 12 channels of DDR5 and as few cores as allowed me to still use all the memory bandwidth, and I'd run it at the lowest possible power and voltage settings with aggressive ram timings. A system like that can draw 1/3 of what my scrap rig draws, at full load. And has similar memory bandwidth to a high end Mac or GPU allowing it to crank out 5 - 10 Tokens / s on the largest models, which works out to 1/3 of a penny to 2/3 of a penny per token. But either way, Epyc or Mac is going to set you back $10k or more. Hopefully in a few years when they are scrap though...
They’ll go after their bank accounts and their financing, in effect killing them outright, no matter from where they’d be headquartered (other than China or Russia, that is). Also, EU and Japan would not risk their nuclear umbrella protection in order to defend the interest of an US company that is fighting the US Government, not in a million years.
France doesn't even have a nuclear triad in place, and last time they offered any big assurances at the international level Munich '38 happened and then June '40. Macron and the people running the French State are well aware of this, no matter their public statements.
I fail to see how the inane failures brought by a dysfunctional IVth Republic are in any way relevant to the post-WW2 world order where both nuclear weapons and the EU began to exist, and in which France has been extremely relevant multiple times over, both geopolitically and on operational theatres.
The importance of the land component of the triad is vastly overstated, simply do not make sense at the landmass size of France, and only matters when your doctrine is USA vs USSR cold-war era complete retaliatory annihilation anyway.
Well look at it this way. Europe wants to ramp up on defense given Putin and Trump's moves, so having a big AI company they can keep close probably fits into that.
Unless you are saying Europe is basically submissive to the US due to the nuclear situation.
Jeff Dean could have done a lot of good and add his name to the list of signatories, seeing as how leaf of AI at Google or some such. He was supposed to be this super-smart dude, I guess he’s far from that.
Huge props for the the Google and OpenAI engineers that did sign this, for those that did realize that they’re fighting for a greater thing, not just for an extra zero or two added at the end of their bank accounts. Especially as they’re taking a great amount of risk by doing it, first of all, imo they are risking their current employment status.
That was in the cards since Hegseth's initial announcement, when he brandished the option for Anthropic to be put on the same level as China and Russia, i.e. the same level as State enemies of the US. Got to give it tho Anthropic's CEO, I had first though that he'd give in faster, looks like he's still clinging on.
Also see what happened to Joseph Nacchio in the early 2000s [1]:
> He was convicted of 19 counts of insider trading in Qwest stock on April 19, 2007[2] – charges his defense team claimed were U.S. government retaliation for his refusal to give customer data to the National Security Agency in February, 2001.
Unfortunately, I think the same thing is in the cards now for Anthropic's CEO, that is if he doesn't choose to play ball.
The part of Dario's response I found funniest was pointing out the inherent contradiction in the DoW threats. Somehow, they could both be a national security threat as well as a national security necessity. Not by doing something differently - at the same time, to the same people, in the same context.
They won’t be brandished as a supply chain risk because the supply chain members are good at lobbying and they like Claude.
As an example, Amazon is a defense contractor and uses Claude heavily internally for development. They are also major investors in Anthropic. Amazon would not want Claude to be banned from use on developing AWS services that may be cross sold to the government. Multiply this by every defense company that uses Claude (eg anduril and Palantir).
They could totally try and punish Anthropic executives of course. That seems likely.
You cannot do that, because there will never be that many charging places around. Never. The situation is so bad now that there are barely enough places for trucks to get parking spots, let alone parking spots with electric charges. I'm talking about Europe, my brother is a truck driver (right now is on a ride to Morocco, he picked something up with his truck from Hungary), I know those stories about parking spots from him.
> I’ve been an engineer for almost 40 years and love seeing what Claude Code can do.
You would say that because otherwise you'd be afraid as being seen as "too old for this job", and hence risking getting kicked out of it all, meaning no future employment opportunities. I know that feeling, because I myself have been doing this programming job for 20+ years already (so not a young one by any means), but let's just cut the crap about it all and let's tell it how it is.
Really? That's a lot of presumption and reductionism to LLMs enthusiasts.
People of varied ages, already leverage LLMs on a daily basis. And LLMs will only get better.
Yesterday, Opus did work for me that would have taken me weeks. And the result was verified with a comprehensive suite of unit tests plus smoke tests by myself. The code looks exactly as the rest of the code in the 10y+ old, hand-written, enterprise project, no slop.
And you actually should be afraid of being left behind in dev related fields if you don't use LLMs. In most areas in fact.
Once the market corrects for LLM assisted production, the expectations will raise. So right now there is a small window to leverage LLMs as a time saving advantage before it becomes the norm and everyone is forced to use it because expecttions will reflect that.
> You would say that because otherwise you'd be afraid as being seen as "too old for this job"
Um... I am still an active reverse engineer of both ring-0 and ring0 applications on both macOS and Windows (I worked on both the VS and Xcode teams). I'm developing a new tool for macOS that allows users to "see behind" active windows without the constant need for cmd/alt+tabbing. My age has zero bearing on my skill set or ability to understand technology. https://imgur.com/a/seymour-r9whXO5
> let's just cut the crap about it all and let's tell it how it is
The reality is, as I said, that this technology exists and it isn't going anywhere. Young people are going to use it as a tool just like we did when GUI operating systems first became prevalent.
I don't even remotely buy into the AI hype but I'm not going put the blinders on either. There is utility in this technology.
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