"I keep coming back to the trees. I’ve been maintaining Open Source projects for close to two decades now. The last startup I worked on, I spent 10 years at. That’s not because I’m particularly disciplined or virtuous. It’s because I or someone else, planted something, and then I kept showing up, and eventually the thing had roots that went deeper than my enthusiasm on any given day. That’s what time does! It turns some idea or plan into a commitment and a commitment into something that can shelter and grow other people."
Good luck _creating_ this by trying to predict the next best word in the sentence.
Figure 2 in this paper shows the result of an experiment where skill and perception of one's skill are measured independently. To eliminate any statistical artifact of auto-correlation. And lo and behold - on average skill is uncorrelated to the accuracy one's own assessment. No DK effect at all. What does show up actually is that more qualified people are more consistent in estimating their skill (i.e. their assessments are less variable), but the mean accuracy is still 0.
So indeed, on average actual and perceived skills are uncorrelated. That's exactly what the numerical proof with random numbers shows and why in many cases we apply Occam's razor.
"I keep coming back to the trees. I’ve been maintaining Open Source projects for close to two decades now. The last startup I worked on, I spent 10 years at. That’s not because I’m particularly disciplined or virtuous. It’s because I or someone else, planted something, and then I kept showing up, and eventually the thing had roots that went deeper than my enthusiasm on any given day. That’s what time does! It turns some idea or plan into a commitment and a commitment into something that can shelter and grow other people."
Good luck _creating_ this by trying to predict the next best word in the sentence.
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