"Dr. Sarah Jackson, a senior research fellow at UCL’s Tobacco and Alcohol Research Group, cautioned that the __findings relate only to quitting in the short term__.
“Given that __the rate of long-term success in quitting tends to be low, this is very unlikely to translate to a million fewer smokers in the UK__, which would be a large decline in prevalence,” she said.
"Other data sources are not yet showing evidence of a large drop in smoking prevalence," she said.
Pardon for assuming people actually read more about the study beyond a headline or two. It is based on self-reporting with a relatively small sample size. Literally the study is only indicating a record number of people _trying_ to quit.
Original Comment>
"Smokers try to quit..."
FTFY. I know two people that have quit heroin but still smoke despite many attempts to stop. I know people that couldn't quit cigs without antidepressants. All that to underscore that it's a seriously difficult addiction to overcome.
It mystifies me that people quite a bit younger than me smoke considering we've known for a long time that not only is it unhealthy, but it's a terribly money suck, very difficult to stop, cosmetically damaging and borderline antisocial at this point. Ironically most young people I've asked about this started smoking for social reasons in a given environment (school, job) and unfortunately will carry that baggage likely for decades.
FWIW I started smoking when I was young and felt invincible, and also really didn't care if I died young. I think a lot of teens are drawn to it because it's a bad idea. I was at least. But I also quit!
Yes, never said it can't be done. I'm saying that the success rate is ridiculously low, our anecdotes aside.
EDIT: BTW, congrats, I don't mean to take anything away from you, doubly so because you did it cold turkey indicates some serious emotional willpower. But I think you're the exception. Here's some CDC numbers for you, seems like a little north of a ten percent success rate:
In 2015, 68.0% of adult smokers (22.7 million) said that they wanted to quit smoking.
In 2018, 55.1% of adult smokers (21.5 million) said that they had made a quit attempt in the past year.
In 2018, 7.5% of adult smokers (2.9 million) successfully quit smoking in the past year
In 2017, 2300 people per day started smoking (839k annually)
If you have any doubt within your head when quitting, you will fail. When I chose to quit, I chose with my whole body and mind. That is, it wasn't about willpower against my own inclinations. If it was, I would have failed.
But I may also have been helped by a few additional factors: The day after I quit, I also got very very sick. That knocked me off my feet for a couple of days, and probably got me through the first few days of the worst cravings (which felt like worms in my brain). Another thing I did was intentionally hang out at a cafe where there were other smokers whom I didn't know. I wanted to make sure I could be around people who smoked without failing.
My dad had never been able to quit smoking. I know how lucky I was to manage it.
"7.5% of adult smokers" in a single year is not "ridiculously low".
Extended over the long term, it suggests over 50% of people quit within 10 years, and nearly 80% within 20 years.
This rings true for myself and most people I know who smoked in their 20s; almost all had quit by their early-mid 30s.
But a motivator also helps - i.e., a real health scare, like a a potentially-lethal virus that everyone is liable to catch and that disproportionately harms people with impaired respiratory health.
So we'd hope (indeed, expect) more people to succeed at quitting during this pandemic. And once they've quit and felt the benefits, many will stay quit for life.
Out of the people who try, about 13% succeed. “Ridiculously low” is a subjective characterization, sure, but that’s a very low rate of success for any endeavor. The fact remains, as echoed by the UCL study author, that long term success rates are very low, the study doesn’t indicate anything more than people self-reporting that they are trying to quit. Right now, it is purely wishful thinking to interpret this study as representing a record drop in the prevalence of smoking in the UK which the headline to this post did.
The rest of your comment sounds as if you’re trying to convince me that it’s virtuous to attempt cessation. I appreciate that viewpoint and nothing in my comments (I believe) have suggested otherwise. Indeed, in my personal worldview anything so difficult to shake loose is worth gaining mastery over as a matter of principle, negative health effects aside.
"Dr. Sarah Jackson, a senior research fellow at UCL’s Tobacco and Alcohol Research Group, cautioned that the __findings relate only to quitting in the short term__.
“Given that __the rate of long-term success in quitting tends to be low, this is very unlikely to translate to a million fewer smokers in the UK__, which would be a large decline in prevalence,” she said.
"Other data sources are not yet showing evidence of a large drop in smoking prevalence," she said.
Pardon for assuming people actually read more about the study beyond a headline or two. It is based on self-reporting with a relatively small sample size. Literally the study is only indicating a record number of people _trying_ to quit.
Original Comment>
"Smokers try to quit..."
FTFY. I know two people that have quit heroin but still smoke despite many attempts to stop. I know people that couldn't quit cigs without antidepressants. All that to underscore that it's a seriously difficult addiction to overcome.
It mystifies me that people quite a bit younger than me smoke considering we've known for a long time that not only is it unhealthy, but it's a terribly money suck, very difficult to stop, cosmetically damaging and borderline antisocial at this point. Ironically most young people I've asked about this started smoking for social reasons in a given environment (school, job) and unfortunately will carry that baggage likely for decades.