> but I fail to see how the fact that Apple is good at designing chips has any relevance whatsoever to the idea that Apple may or may not be good at manufacturing those same chips.
> If every ROI-seeking multibilliondollar hedge fund in the world can't build a leading edge node fab or two to compete with TSMC, what suggests that Apple's money would do any better?
Apple had 0 chip designers working for them not so long ago. They saw the writing on the wall that they were not going to be able to get where they wanted to go, as quickly as they wanted to, relying on a company that didn't see the writing on the wall, and falling further and further behind. Apple had hardware engineers to design their products using chips from other companies, and software engineers to make them do something useful, and design engineers to make them pretty. Then they decided to hire some chip engineers, some really good ones at the top, because they can afford to and they had a will to and concrete purpose. On their very first attempt at a new cpu, they were running with the best of them. How long has Apple been designing chips and how does it stack up against Intels cream of the crop and how long have each been at it? I do not see why Apple would not succeed if they put their minds, money and leadership style to it.
> "Everybody knows" that a big chunk of the M1/mac performance dominance right now is due to their buying out huge amounts of TSMC capacity at leading edge nodes. Thus, much of the recent M1/M1Pro/M1Max "great leap forward" (pun intended) are directly attributable to TSMC specifically.
Right, which is exactly why I think they will start to rely less on something that is only manufactured/available in a single political hotbed of a country, Taiwan, because Apple is now reliant on the best/most advanced process only offered by TSMC/Taiwan. Those leading edge nodes are not available to TSMC plants in any other country that I'm aware of. The crown jewels are kept in-country, under tight control. China is very vocally stating that Taiwan will be "reunited" with China and being fairly hostile about it. Apple might be peering into their crystal ball, wondering what that eventually means for their heavy reliance on that single country and top of the line products that make them their money. That's a very new worry that didn't exist when they were using Intel chips, which were manufactured in multiple countries. Apples future currently lies in whatever China ends up choosing to do with Taiwan. That's a major single point of failure and scary position to be in. If I were Apple, I'd want to ensure more control over my product line into the future and history has shown that is a very big priority for them, to their benefit. I'm quite sure the China/Taiwan situation is giving everyone at Apple quite a headache. It's hard to predict and Cook's steering a trillion dollar ship. If you have the money, hedge your bets.
It would also open up an additional major revenue stream, after they've perfected it for their own products.
> Apple had 0 chip designers working for them not so long ago.
Apple's acquisition of PA Semi was over a dozen years ago.
I agree that the second best time to plant a tree is today, but I also think that nothing today is indicative of Apple's likelihood of success at operating a fab 5-10 years down the line from today.
They tried cars and (so far) seem to have failed. I have nothing to suggest that their odds at succeeding in chip manufacture would be anything other than 50/50.
> If every ROI-seeking multibilliondollar hedge fund in the world can't build a leading edge node fab or two to compete with TSMC, what suggests that Apple's money would do any better?
Apple had 0 chip designers working for them not so long ago. They saw the writing on the wall that they were not going to be able to get where they wanted to go, as quickly as they wanted to, relying on a company that didn't see the writing on the wall, and falling further and further behind. Apple had hardware engineers to design their products using chips from other companies, and software engineers to make them do something useful, and design engineers to make them pretty. Then they decided to hire some chip engineers, some really good ones at the top, because they can afford to and they had a will to and concrete purpose. On their very first attempt at a new cpu, they were running with the best of them. How long has Apple been designing chips and how does it stack up against Intels cream of the crop and how long have each been at it? I do not see why Apple would not succeed if they put their minds, money and leadership style to it.
> "Everybody knows" that a big chunk of the M1/mac performance dominance right now is due to their buying out huge amounts of TSMC capacity at leading edge nodes. Thus, much of the recent M1/M1Pro/M1Max "great leap forward" (pun intended) are directly attributable to TSMC specifically.
Right, which is exactly why I think they will start to rely less on something that is only manufactured/available in a single political hotbed of a country, Taiwan, because Apple is now reliant on the best/most advanced process only offered by TSMC/Taiwan. Those leading edge nodes are not available to TSMC plants in any other country that I'm aware of. The crown jewels are kept in-country, under tight control. China is very vocally stating that Taiwan will be "reunited" with China and being fairly hostile about it. Apple might be peering into their crystal ball, wondering what that eventually means for their heavy reliance on that single country and top of the line products that make them their money. That's a very new worry that didn't exist when they were using Intel chips, which were manufactured in multiple countries. Apples future currently lies in whatever China ends up choosing to do with Taiwan. That's a major single point of failure and scary position to be in. If I were Apple, I'd want to ensure more control over my product line into the future and history has shown that is a very big priority for them, to their benefit. I'm quite sure the China/Taiwan situation is giving everyone at Apple quite a headache. It's hard to predict and Cook's steering a trillion dollar ship. If you have the money, hedge your bets.
It would also open up an additional major revenue stream, after they've perfected it for their own products.