It will take a long time until some other countries will overtake China. And China isn't going to sit doing nothing. They buy and invest all over the world. They invest in foreign resources, infrastructure and manufacturing.
That's what every former industrial power did. I'm not saying China will fall into ruin, it will simply be just another developed country outsourcing industry to cheaper countries.
I think you'll find that china has succeeded due to more factors than cheap labor. If it was only cheap labor we'd expect other low cost countries with large populations to have performed similarly.
China had at least the following combination of factors in its favor.
- Geopolitical alignment with the current superpower resulting in favorable trade deals across the globe with no need to expend military and diplomatic power to maintain trade.
- A government which actively supported infrastructure investment with a corruption level low enough to actually build infrastructure with the investment.
- A trade policy which encouraged foreign direct investment but required companies to train locals and ultimately leave IP/management decisions locally.
- A strong investment in STEM education, including importing of talent from abroad.
- A stable governing structure.
- A young, low-cost, urbanizing labor force.
There are likely many more factors in China's economic performance. But it would be foolish to believe that China succeeded because of cheap labor, or that manufacturers are going to move shop out of China as soon as labor costs rise. At this point I'd be skeptical that most US manufacturers who outsourced to China could relocate their manufacturing without the technical expertise of the same Chinese manufacturers they outsourced too.
