The anti-American disinformation and social division campaigns really worked a number in the EU to the point that Germany has its head in the sand while Russia is on the brink of plunging Europe back into war.
Remember when the Australians snubbed France over the nuclear subs? This is why. The Anglosphere has realized that it can’t count on a unified, pro-democracy response from the EU. No teeth on Russia. No teeth on China. If Russia invaded Ukraine and pushed into other European countries it’s likely that the EU would simply collapse. It has no ability to create a coordinated response. Each country would resort to defending itself. I mean the UK is airlifting supplies, to Ukraine, to prepare for a war of aggression started by Russia and the Germans are saying effectively “fly it around Germany we don’t want to make Russia mad”. I’m not sure how much more info you need there. Hard to really see much of a point in NATO anymore. Putin has correctly realized that he only has to attack the alliance to dissolve it.
The other thing that I think Putin is realizing is that MAD is dead as long as you’re willing to put it to the test. Nobody is going to launch nuclear weapons to defend Poland or even Germany. If Russia dropped troops in Alaska tomorrow or California (this wouldn’t happen anyway but hear me out) is the US really going to nuke the entire world? I don’t think so. But would Putin nuke the US if it invaded Russia? I think this is on the table when you have seemingly a lot less to lose but even then I’m not sure.
So all of a sudden we’re back to a world where conventional warfare - open and outright hostility is back on the table in a way it hasn’t been in 80 years. Putin tomorrow could roll tanks through Belarus, Ukraine, and probably Latvia and Estonia and maybe even Finland and start a conventional, non-nuclear war with the West that he may very well win. The U.S. isn’t sending ground troops. He’s so confident in this he pulled troops from Siberia.
With that being said, the Russian army certainly ain’t the Soviet army. When Putin attacks be attacks with all of the best troops he has, which aren’t many. Official facility counts of weapons, ammunition, troop levels, are not to be believed. The downside of corruption means it makes it ok for lower level officials to sell an AK-47 or tank here or there. Or maybe a shipment of jet fuel just never actually arrives.
Remember when the Australians snubbed France over the nuclear subs? This is why. The Anglosphere has realized that it can’t count on a unified, pro-democracy response from the EU. No teeth on Russia. No teeth on China. If Russia invaded Ukraine and pushed into other European countries it’s likely that the EU would simply collapse. It has no ability to create a coordinated response. Each country would resort to defending itself. I mean the UK is airlifting supplies, to Ukraine, to prepare for a war of aggression started by Russia and the Germans are saying effectively “fly it around Germany we don’t want to make Russia mad”. I’m not sure how much more info you need there. Hard to really see much of a point in NATO anymore. Putin has correctly realized that he only has to attack the alliance to dissolve it.
The other thing that I think Putin is realizing is that MAD is dead as long as you’re willing to put it to the test. Nobody is going to launch nuclear weapons to defend Poland or even Germany. If Russia dropped troops in Alaska tomorrow or California (this wouldn’t happen anyway but hear me out) is the US really going to nuke the entire world? I don’t think so. But would Putin nuke the US if it invaded Russia? I think this is on the table when you have seemingly a lot less to lose but even then I’m not sure.
So all of a sudden we’re back to a world where conventional warfare - open and outright hostility is back on the table in a way it hasn’t been in 80 years. Putin tomorrow could roll tanks through Belarus, Ukraine, and probably Latvia and Estonia and maybe even Finland and start a conventional, non-nuclear war with the West that he may very well win. The U.S. isn’t sending ground troops. He’s so confident in this he pulled troops from Siberia.
With that being said, the Russian army certainly ain’t the Soviet army. When Putin attacks be attacks with all of the best troops he has, which aren’t many. Official facility counts of weapons, ammunition, troop levels, are not to be believed. The downside of corruption means it makes it ok for lower level officials to sell an AK-47 or tank here or there. Or maybe a shipment of jet fuel just never actually arrives.
Anyway I need to go back to sleep.