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Let’s not pretend Apple, Uber, Google and countless others weren’t spending billions trying to make this a reality. They didn’t burn that money because they were smart enough to know it wasn’t going to happen. Everyone thought it was imminent. Many still do.


Billions of dollars for Apple and Google are within the realm of no-nonsense moonshots given that their core business is very solid.

Tesla had to use all their weapons including fraud, exagerations and lies because their core business is the worst business in the world: manufacturing automobiles.

So they have essentially nothing to fall back on if FSD fails.


I'm still mystified that tesla isn't mired in lawsuits over this: Some tesla dealers were telling customers that within a few years their self driving tesla would earn back its purchase price from acting as a robotaxi.



It's very unclear to me who really thought what.

I'm sure there really were true believers who got sucked in by the rapid advances in ML and figured "How hard can the last 20% be really?"

You had companies that figured they'd better their bases because they could afford to and FOMO.

You almost certainly had some number of cynical grifters pitching a story for their investors that they knew was nonsense.

And you had a lot of people who saw all of the above and figured that it must be all true.


It was insurance against being left out of a revolution until they understood the problem better.




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