At the risk of sounding like a complete idiot, isn't the hypothesis of the original paper still true? Let's assume self assessment score is perfectly random between 0% and 100%, so on average every group will always estimate themselves to be 50% correct
Then by definition that means people who are unskilled and often incorrect will overestimate themselves, while people who are often correct will underestimate themselves. Take a complete idiot for example. You always get 0% test score. Yet your self-assessment is random between 0% and 100%. Hence you overestimate yourself much more often than people who always get 100% test score.
In fact, if the two are uncorrelated, then that still means that
Then by definition that means people who are unskilled and often incorrect will overestimate themselves, while people who are often correct will underestimate themselves. Take a complete idiot for example. You always get 0% test score. Yet your self-assessment is random between 0% and 100%. Hence you overestimate yourself much more often than people who always get 100% test score.
In fact, if the two are uncorrelated, then that still means that
1) Idiots don't recognize they're idiots
2) Skilled people don't recognize they're skilled