First of all, other players are likely using the same naive approach and you need to differentiate yourself. Second, using simple EVs will give you consistent, but not top, results. You will likely always finish in the top third, but never in the top 1%, losing out to people who successfully predicted a low EV player's incredibly high output in a game.

Certainly the desire for a more sophisticated and robust model, but I'd be interested to understand the LOE involved and what levels of improvements are offered by said efforts. Perhaps the author can offer links to approachable books/articles on the matter?