In disclosure, I'm a "backer" of app.net and am on the alpha. And as a hardcore Dark Knight fan, I can fall for any DK quote.
But while I respect MG's other writing, I don't agree with all of his conclusions here.
Some thoughts:
1. He states that "the web is simply not conducive to a user-supported service reaching the scale of a Twitter" to imply that success = scale. I actually believe the app.net could become a lot like HN - a relatively (web-wise) small group of people who all get value from the service - enough to pay for it. Does it kill twitter then? Probably not? But does that mean it's a failure? I don't think so.
2. Furthermore, let's examine this point that the only services that can get to scale are ad-supported. He certainly has good empirical data (facebook, twitter, etc.) to back him up. But in the software world, open, non-commercial efforts (e.g., linux, smtp email and more broadly the internet) have had gigantic impacts in terms of scale. As others pointed out, wikipedia is an example of a service in this vein. I think we haven't played out the experiment yet of what do open, non-commercial distributed services look like. I wouldn't give up on that. I personally think that any true communications utility long-term needs to be open (like email). app.net is still commercial so not fully there - but clearly (IMHO) more transparent and open than an ad-supported model.
3. MG also doesn't talk about one of dalton's meta-points which I also feel passionately about. The conventional wisdom seems to have accepted that an ad-supported future state - where ads follow us around, personalized to what they think we want, making us think our services we're getting are "free" when they really aren't - is the only possible future state. I know Tom Cruise got followed around by ads in "Minority Report", but that doesn't mean it has to be our future. I personally believe that humans will recognize over time the real cost of advertising and eventually converge to a more balanced world of paid and faux-free (ad-supported) services. I'm not saying ad-supported will go away - just that there will be choice (which was actually the main point dalton made in the first blog post he wrote on this topic).
Overall, I think Dalton should be commended whether his effort works or not. He re-sparked some very important discussions and was willing to take a chance on his ideas.
But while I respect MG's other writing, I don't agree with all of his conclusions here.
Some thoughts:
1. He states that "the web is simply not conducive to a user-supported service reaching the scale of a Twitter" to imply that success = scale. I actually believe the app.net could become a lot like HN - a relatively (web-wise) small group of people who all get value from the service - enough to pay for it. Does it kill twitter then? Probably not? But does that mean it's a failure? I don't think so.
2. Furthermore, let's examine this point that the only services that can get to scale are ad-supported. He certainly has good empirical data (facebook, twitter, etc.) to back him up. But in the software world, open, non-commercial efforts (e.g., linux, smtp email and more broadly the internet) have had gigantic impacts in terms of scale. As others pointed out, wikipedia is an example of a service in this vein. I think we haven't played out the experiment yet of what do open, non-commercial distributed services look like. I wouldn't give up on that. I personally think that any true communications utility long-term needs to be open (like email). app.net is still commercial so not fully there - but clearly (IMHO) more transparent and open than an ad-supported model.
3. MG also doesn't talk about one of dalton's meta-points which I also feel passionately about. The conventional wisdom seems to have accepted that an ad-supported future state - where ads follow us around, personalized to what they think we want, making us think our services we're getting are "free" when they really aren't - is the only possible future state. I know Tom Cruise got followed around by ads in "Minority Report", but that doesn't mean it has to be our future. I personally believe that humans will recognize over time the real cost of advertising and eventually converge to a more balanced world of paid and faux-free (ad-supported) services. I'm not saying ad-supported will go away - just that there will be choice (which was actually the main point dalton made in the first blog post he wrote on this topic).
Overall, I think Dalton should be commended whether his effort works or not. He re-sparked some very important discussions and was willing to take a chance on his ideas.