Paying someone who provides no return on investment is simply a bad investment. Of course extra money doesn't hurt the person getting paid. It hurts the government. They are now giving someone value (payng them) in exchange for no immediate value in return. This kind of expenditure at any business or organization would be recognized as one of poor judgement. Value can't be generated out of thin air. People must pay for what they use, either by money or sweat. Lack of recognition of these basic facts isn't good. UBI is not viable.
Ok, so what do you propose to do instead as AI gradually eats the world? A stated goal of most companies in that space is essentially to make human work redundant, so shall we just kill off all the ones who aren't needed anymore?
Not the grandparent, but I've been waiting for somebody to ask!
The gov should guarantee a minimum wage job for everybody. You get out of bed, do something useful, you get a pay check. You might even learn a trade or develop skills.
Don't like your boss, or the work not right for you, there can be plenty of other jobs for you to move into.
What are all these jobs? I'm glad you asked!
We need to plant billions of trees to soak up CO2, then tend the forests.
We could use a few massive desalination projects.
We can convert the world to green energy.
We can care for our elderly better.
We could use a lot more teachers. (How does 10 kids per teacher sound!).
Of course would could have more homes and nicer cities. (How good would it be for the gov to pay you to build your own house!)
There is a very long list of cool stuff we could do if you don't need rich people to invest in it first!
this! there is so much potential that we could develop if we trained people to work in meaningful jobs and if we actually funded these jobs. everywhere we hear complaints about how there are not enough teachers. never mind getting a teacher per 10 kids. some countries don't have enough teachers to get one per 30 kids. but there is no limit here. same goes for healthcare. nurses and doctors are hopelessly overworked. we could easily do with having 3x as many people work in those areas. even in science and research. we have a replication crisis because research is given the wrong incentives. how about awarding more reputation who replicate and verify existing research and without reputation for anything that can't be replicated.
there is absolutely no reason for anyone to be out of work. there is enough good work to do.
GP: Paying someone who provides no return on investment is simply a bad investment
this thinking is the big mistake. the return of investment in letting people work on meaningful things is massive.
here is the kicker though. the examples we gave so far don't even need UBI. we could just fund education and those jobs.
however there is still a large benefit to UBI. it gives people more flexibility. it allows them to work less hours and spend their time on other things that can't easily be paid like caring for the environment in a more active way. keep your neighborhood clean. care for animals. help neighbors. socialize. spend more time with your children. these are all beneficial for our society. it is absolutely false that there is no return of such an investment.
I've been waiting for somebody to ask
i have been making this argument many times over the years. here on HN and elsewhere. the key is education. UBI is a great idea. but only with better and more education can the world really benefit from it.
Who owns the AI, demanding payment for its use? Who owns the GPUs that the AI runs on? Who sold those people the silicon? Who owns the real estate upon which the GPUs run? All those people will demand payment for services rendered or goods delivered.
My personal favorite: Who fixes the AI when it breaks?
The lawn mower replaced human work, but it needs _just enough_ direction that it's still worth money for humans to run them, auto-run lawn mowers notwithstanding.
AI will make people faster, but humans will only do work for other humans that do their share by giving value back.
I don't believe we will ever live in a world where people won't want people working for them, or doing something for them.
How about get educated/trained in something AI can't eat? Become a HVAC technician, Nurse/Doctor, lawn care maintenance owner, teacher, industrial shop owner, etc. There are plenty of fields that don't require AI to compete. They just require effort on your part to become educated and participate.
I think you are overestimating some of these fields resistance to automation. I'm actively working on automating HVAC and Lawn care. It's gonna take at least 3 years to see AI impact there, maybe its 20...but the road to automation is somewhat clear and progress is happening.
Interesting. How will (physically) AI install a new HVAC system? There must be some form of physical presence to get the job done. And, the current set of installers have a difficult time as it is (running duct work, low/high PSI lines, etc).
Again, how will (physically) AI take over lawn maintenance? Do you expect a fleet of self-driving lawn-mowers to take to the streets? How will they get to your place? Who will be managing them? So many questions.
Personally, I think the AI hype is way overblown. Sure, AI can help give better data for these areas, but I highly doubt AI will take over. I think AI can help smart people get even smarter (better ways to mow, more efficient ways to run HVAC lines, etc), but at the end of the day, you still need physical presence for many/most jobs.
> This kind of expenditure at any business or organization would be recognized as one of poor judgement
The purpose of a business is to generate a return on investment.
Are you suggesting that the purpose of a government is to generate a return on investment?
> We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
I am suggesting that buying something that has no worth is a bad idea no matter what organization you are. It's less a bad investment in the context of government and more a misappropriation of funds.
Government money represents hard earned cash of the people. The ability for the government to borrow -- its credit -- deals with its reputation as an entity that is capable of paying its debts. This reputation reflects on the people governed.
The people's money and its reputation should be respected. Money should be borrowed carefully to protect the people's reputation. Taxes should be spent wisely to protect and defend their purse. Wise expenditure is an important part of good stewardship, good government, and good politics.
Thanks for this. Young people think UBI is great since they don't have much invested in the system. Instead they just have propaganda from media/social sites telling them how the world is falling apart, how they don't have a chance to succeed, etc. The answer: UBI! It is the "easy" answer since it literally requires no effort on their part to participate in society. They get up, eat free food, live in a free house, and enjoy the day without any worry.
Sounds great until they realize the human condition eventually kicks in. People will decide not to work - they will just take and not give back. In the end, we need a society where people are required to put forth the effort to participate.
we need a society where people are required to put forth the effort to participate
we need a society where people are MOTIVATED to put forth the effort to participate. only education can provide that motivation. (education is not just school, but also parenting, etc, but school is the place where new ideas are shared with the next generation). UBI can then provide the freedom to act on that motivation.
to be greedy is not the human condition. it is a protection mechanism because everyone else is perceived to be greedy and selfish as well. change that perception and give people the means to not need to be protective and the world will change.
my own life is testimony to that. i am from a country where i know that i will get support if i need it. i am using this perception of safety to wander out into the world with my children and live in places where we can make a meaningful difference. and i do that without getting any financial aid. finances are tough. my savings have run out. life is not easy. but i keep going because it is worth it. the children are getting the education of their lifetime and i am able to take the risk because i know that if all else fails i still can go back home and get support.
