Here's a prediction I've heard that I actually thought was kind of interesting.
China will be the first to clone humans because they don't have our ethical restraints. Since China already is interested in eugenics, its easy to infer that they'll be interested in cloning geniuses.
It will get interesting if a large population of geniuses in China starts to tip the technological and military balance and whether other countries would feel compelled to respond.
> if a large population of geniuses in China starts to tip the technological and military balance and whether other countries would feel compelled to respond.
If all you needed to get an edge on other countries was a bunch of intelligent people, that would be known for a long time and India and China would be leading the world by now. But that's certainly not sufficient.
However, wouldn't you agree that China is getting closer to the US in technological sophistication? How does that picture look if a much larger proportion of China's population is geniuses?
Why China, which has an over-population problem. Why not countries who want to solve their declining population problems such as Russia, Japan, many Western European countries, or Israel (whose Jewish population is declining quickly relative to other groups)? Those with popular biases in favor of specific ethnic groups might see this as the alternative to immigration or national decline.
The problem for Japan and most Western nations is not that their young people are infertile, it's that their young people are unwilling to marry and have children. (And even those who are willing, are only willing to have one or two children, and only at age 35+.) Cloning can't solve that problem!
China will be the first to clone humans because they don't have our ethical restraints. Since China already is interested in eugenics, its easy to infer that they'll be interested in cloning geniuses.
It will get interesting if a large population of geniuses in China starts to tip the technological and military balance and whether other countries would feel compelled to respond.