The intriguing thing about both neodymium and cerium is that while they’re
called rare earth minerals, they're actually fairly common. Neodymium is no
rarer than copper or nickel and quite evenly distributed throughout the
world’s crust. While China produces 90% of the global market’s neodymium,
only 30% of the world’s deposits are located there. Arguably, what makes it,
and cerium, scarce enough to be profitable are the hugely hazardous and
toxic process needed to extract them from ore and to refine them into usable
products. For example, cerium is extracted by crushing mineral mixtures and
dissolving them in sulphuric and nitric acid, and this has to be done on a
huge industrial scale, resulting in a vast amount of poisonous waste as a
byproduct. It could be argued that China’s dominance of the rare earth
market is less about geology and far more about the country’s willingness to
take an environmental hit that other nations shy away from.
ie the rare earths minerals aren't rare, just very toxic to extract
Yes. If China stopped selling the stuff entirely then alternative supplies could be arranged, though not to say the changeover period wouldn't be inflationary.
This situation reminds me of something I read a few years ago - an interview with noted (?) right-wing polemicist P. J. O'Rourke, at the time apparentlny on the merry-go-round promoting his then-new book: http://rightwingnews.com/interviews/the-p-j-orourke-intervie...
Part of the bit that stuck in my mind:
[...] the exports, that’s real stuff, and you’re giving it away in
favor of gold. He [Adam Smith] said imports are the good thing.
Imports are when you’re getting something you like. You’re getting
French wine. You’re getting American tobacco. You’re getting furs
from Russia, getting whatever they were getting back in those
days. He said exports are the way you pay for those imports. So
imports are Christmas morning. Exports are January’s Visa bill.
(Search for that quote. His whole answer to that particular question is quite interesting.)
I think of this every time I read anything about acres of toxic sludge and skies full of clouds of carcinogens. I don't quite share O'Rourke's apparent glee at how fools will sweat blood to extract raw materials, actual honest-to-god assets, and then swap them for mere money, money whose ultimate value is entirely under somebody else's control... but I do wonder what the hell they are thinking, and what sort of a deal they think they are getting. Because from my perspective, it looks like they're getting shafted.
