Lots of folks upgrade phones every year or every other year.
I question whether this is the bubble that geeks live in. Plenty of people don't know there are new phones to get until their old one breaks. In the case that someone's upgrading when their contract gives them a new phone, I can see more of a strain, but they rarely think of themselves paying $600 for a phone.
To an extent, Apple is producing the Watch to offset the slowing growth of smartphone sales, which tells me that people aren't buying them as often as you think.
I'm interested how long the average phone lasts before it breaks in your pool of anecdotal people?
My social circle sounds similar to yours. I have two phone junkie friends who seem to be moving to a new phone every year. Then a handful of geek friends who upgrade their phones at the end of their contracts, which is normally two or three version numbers higher.
That leaves the majority who upgrade when their phones break. These range from clumsy people who seem to end up keeping up with my phone junkie friends to some people still using iPhone 3's. But basically... the breakage upgrade cycle sees the majority of them upgrading every other year.
Good question. I think we're actually in the early stages of the cycle. Those people I don't think will upgrade for a while are still on their first smartphones, mostly iPhone 5. I've noticed significantly less breakage once they switched from dumbphones... they actually like and need their smartphone where a dumbphone was like any other phone - you lose some contacts and that's it. Obviously, that attachment has something to do with the ridiculous growth of smartphones.
In the time since I got my current phone (an S3), my wife's gone through 3 of them (though all S3s, and primarily through insurance replacement). The primary reason I haven't replaced my phone (as this is my third or fourth "smartphone") is because my carrier changed their hardware policies, making a new phone more expensive unless I move to an older phone (though I could still get a newer model than the S3 for a fairly low price). My particular S3 has been great, while my wife's have been less resilient.
As for anything really keeping me from upgrading, other than a slight fear that the new phone might not be as good as the current phone, I'm really not afraid of losing contacts or anything else. I think I've gotten to the point where the new models aren't really offering a compelling reason to upgrade (other than planned obsolescence as apps get more bloated and OS versions become unsupported).
As for the Apple Watch (and competitors), I think there are three primary demographics:
1. Boomers who look at it as the "Dick Tracy" accessory.
2. Those who like to wear a large, expensive watch primarily as a showpiece (especially since so many people stopped wearing watches when they started using their phones as a timepiece).
3. Those interested in the tech.
Yes, true. Working in tech, I'm probably seeing the end of the spectrum that updates their devices more frequently.
I have nothing against the apple watch per se other than price. Just a personal thing. But I can't see paying that much for a device with a) a rechargeable battery that may or may not be easily replaceable and b) has tech that will age out quickly (compared to for example just a digital watch of some sort). Just seems like extreme planned obsolescence. But I'll be happy to be proven wrong.
It may be the utility of such devices outstrips any such concerns.
No one in the general populace cares about replaceable/removable batteries, any more than they care about the increasing difficulty in fixing your own car. Samsung gave in with the Galaxy S6, and they're obviously following the numbers.
And every watch I've ever owned has a battery that's just as replaceable as the Watch's -- that is, you take it to the dealer.
I'm pretty sure when this Pebble I've got on my wrist needs a new battery, the answer is not going to be "send it back to Pebble", but "take to it with a Dremel then some epoxy". And I'm OK with that. (And, I've got a new Pebble on the way now, a cople of years after buying this first one...)
Not quite so sure I'd be as happy taking to a ~2 year old $400+ iWatch with a Dremel...
> I can't see paying that much for a device with a) a rechargeable battery that may or may not be easily replaceable and b) has tech that will age out quickly (compared to for example just a digital watch of some sort).
Nor can I, but I'm a Luddite with a cheap Timex and the smallest, dumbest off-contract phone I could find. Given that the $350 low-end model and the $17,000 high-end model have the same battery and guts, I expect/hope that Apple will offer some kind of trade-in or hardware update program. If I could pay $200 every couple of years to replace the non-jewelry bits of this thing, it would make a lot more sense.
To an extent, Apple is producing the Watch to offset the slowing growth of smartphone sales, which tells me that people aren't buying them as often as you think.