Every logical mind (even within Google) in 1999 would have seen that Google was heading for failure
I didn't think that. I remember telling the powers that be at Yahoo in 1999 (I worked there then) that they ought to buy Google, and it was the only company I ever suggested they buy.
Yahoo's MO at the time was to swap in the current "cool kid" of algorithmic search to fill out Yahoo's own search results. Google didn't really have much of a business outside of selling their results to folks like Yahoo, so I think many logical minds would've agreed that Google was heading for failure--short of being acquired by Yahoo or something other big guy in search.
At the least, you'd have a hard time making a believable argument that they'd be making billions of dollars a year in less than a half decade. And, truthfully, an even harder time trying to make that same sort of argument if they were actually acquired by Yahoo.
Fair enough Paul, but I think we've already proved your as much an exception to the rule as Google is. :-)
My point was that "most people" would have considered Google a bad investment prior to adwords. Given the response, it's obvious I should have been more clear.
I didn't think that. I remember telling the powers that be at Yahoo in 1999 (I worked there then) that they ought to buy Google, and it was the only company I ever suggested they buy.